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AgMIP Introduction

Wheat, rice and cotton are major crops in Pakistan not only in terms of local consumption but also in view of large exports. These crops are grown on approximately 8.81, 2.37 and 2.69 million hectares of land respectively, with a total production of 24.2 million tons of wheat, 4.8 million tons of rice, and 11.5 million bales of cotton. These crops are grown in different agro-ecological zones of Pakistan. Each zone represents diverse soil, social, hydrological and climatic conditions.

The overall goal of the project is the analysis of historic/current climate, as well as crop and economic data to determine the trends of climate change in the region and its likely impact on crop productivity and the economy. This includes calibration and validation of crop models for wheat, rice and cotton, regional economic models, as well as quantification of the spatial and temporal yield variability and yield forecasting under future climate change scenarios

Key Messages phase 1

01 There would be significant increase in temperature i.e., 2.8°C in day and 2.2°C in the night during mid-century (2040-2069)
02 There would be significant variability in rainfall patterns (about 25% increase in summer & 12% decrease in winter during 2040-2069)
03 Climate Change will affect the crop yields negatively (about 17% for rice and 14 % for wheat)
04 If there will be no adaptation to Climate Change, majority of farmers would be the economic losers
05 With Adaptation to Climate Change (through technology and management), there would be significant decrease in poverty and improvement in the livelihood of farming community

Key Messages phase 2

01 Reduction in Cotton yield of about 47% and wheat yield 2 % in Cotton-wheat cropping system under RCP 8.5 for mid-century (2040-2069)
02 Reduction in Cotton yield of 42% and wheat yield 4.5% under RCP 4.5 for mid-century (2040-2069)
03 Decrease in rainfall would be about 33 & 52 % during cotton growing season and 36 & 42 % during Wheat growing season under 4.5 & 8.5 RCPs, respectively for mid-century (2040-2069) for hot dry conditions
04 There would be increase in mean max. temperature of 2.5 °C & 3.6 °C and mean min. temperature 2.7 °C & 3.8 °C under 4.5 and 8.5 RCPs, respectively for mid-century (2040-2069)

(Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Pakistan 2012-2014)


Project Objectives

  1. To develop climate change scenarios for the region.
  2. Evaluation of DSSAT and APSIM models for simulating phenology, growth and yield of crops under different ecological zones.
  3. To estimate the impacts of future changing climate and economic scenarios on crop production and benefits to stakeholders in the region.
  4. Selection of best management options (package of production technology) for economically efficient production of crops using the model under the changing climatic and soil conditions of different agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan.
  5. To find out the flaws in the models simulations and correction measures to improve them.